Stunning Start: Pacers Shock the Thunder in NBA Finals Game 1
Absolutely nobody saw this coming: the Indiana Pacers, who barely scraped into the playoffs as the eighth seed, landed a gut-punch to the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals. With just seconds left in a wild finish, Indiana clawed back from a double-digit, fourth quarter deficit, stealing the game 111-110 right on the Thunder’s home court. Fans and analysts can’t stop talking about how rare an upset like this is on basketball’s biggest stage—but the odds still lean heavily on the Thunder’s side for the series.
The big stories for Indiana were Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. Down 15 points heading into the final period, Haliburton started stringing together flashy assists and fearless drives, while Siakam bullied his way into clutch baskets and big rebounds. Together, they ripped the momentum straight from Oklahoma City’s hands, stunning a packed arena that expected another Thunder win. Haliburton’s playmaking in particular was electric, threading passes in the tightest corners and forcing the Thunder’s defense into awkward positions. Siakam’s adaptability let him switch between attacking the rim and drawing defenders out, which opened doors for his teammates down the stretch.
This wild opener flipped expectations, but the folks in Las Vegas are sticking to their numbers. Despite the Game 1 result, the NBA Finals odds have barely budged: Oklahoma City is still listed with -330 odds to take the trophy, while the Pacers sit at +265. If you’re wondering, that’s a serious vote of confidence that this young Thunder team can bounce right back.
Breaking Down the Numbers: Model Picks and Player Props
Las Vegas isn’t the only place crunching numbers after that thriller. A well-respected predictive model—boasting a 164-91 track record—has broken down the matchup, and it’s shining a spotlight on several factors. Offensive efficiency for Oklahoma City was a given all season, and they did keep up their scoring for much of Game 1. But Indiana’s ability to scramble defensively in the fourth quarter, contesting shots and crushing passing lanes, completely disrupted the Thunder’s rhythm when it mattered most.
The model also keyed in on rebounding, pointing out how crucial it was for Indiana to limit second-chance buckets. While Oklahoma City showed off its famous depth and three-point shooting early, the Pacers made timely stops and capitalized on chaos late. The expert projection highlights player props for fans and bettors to watch: Tyrese Haliburton’s assists totals (which were sky-high in Game 1) and Pascal Siakam’s combined points and rebounds could be smart bets, especially if Indiana’s game plan sticks.
Even so, the Thunder walk into Game 2 as heavy favorites—Vegas books have them at an 11-point edge. Analysts expect an aggressive response, with Oklahoma City likely to tighten up and lean harder on its long bench. But after the Pacers’ Game 1 shocker, every possession suddenly looks like it matters a little bit more.
The next two games are slated for Oklahoma City, meaning the Thunder won’t have to deal with Indiana’s home crowd just yet. Whether the Pacers can keep the magic alive, or the Thunder storm right back into the driver’s seat, there’s no doubt this series just became way more interesting than anyone predicted.
